Which route will Hurricane Joaquin take?

ECMWF model has been holding consistent with pulling Joaquin off to the east

RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — The ECMWF model has been holding consistent with pulling Joaquin off to the east and allowing a nor’easter to form along the Atlantic coastline for the weekend.

Many other models pull Joaquin right at the east coast, and some bring it inland, even a few that turn it to the southwest at landfall (obviously wrong).

The “real answer” is not going to come until the storm stops moving to the southwest and makes its turn to the north. That will be late tomorrow night into Friday. Right now what I think is the most likely scenario is that the Joaquin makes a run at the East Coast and gets merged into the remnants of the front that is near us. Kind of our version of “The Perfect Storm.”

The bottom line on this is that we are going to have a lot of rain between now and Sunday night.  A low end forecast of 5” of rain total for us is reasonable.  A land falling path puts that total up to maybe 10” of more.  So we are going to get soaked. Bring the storm inland and winds of 50 mph or more a possible even into Richmond.  Keep it out to sea, and we will be more in the 25 to 30mph range.

Along the west shores of the bay, you will have coastal flooding and surges up the rivers, no matter what. To the west, the mountains are a bit concern with very heavy rainfall possibly leading to moderate to severe river flooding next week.   All things to be concerned and aware about, but not time to panic yet.

You can track Hurricane Joaquin yourself using our Tropical Tracker tool.

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